Almost empty portfolio

 The past few weeks have been a wild ride. The sentiment has been extremely bearish. I had to cut lost my short-term positions. The reason I have not been writing is because I have not taken much actions so far. My portfolio is almost empty now. I am looking for the market to stablize before going in big again. Valuations of some tech stocks look much more attractive than before, but some may argue they are still overvalued. To each his own. I think it's all relative. The stocks I sold have all dropped far below the prices I sold at because I know a big storm is coming so I acted early. Hoping to buy back at lower prices. Yes market timing at work. I am concerned that I might also miss the eventual rebound (if any) so I am just "nibbling" very small positions, to keep myself vested. When the time comes, I may average up to catch the wave. For now, I can only wait. 

So far value, defensive, healthcare and consumer staples stocks are holding up well, and even went up 5-10%. Examples : McDonalds, J&J, Colgate, and many others. Due to my busy schedule, I didn't manage to move my money into these stocks fast enough. Otherwise I could have made some small profits. It is obvious big funds are acting on their risk-off playbooks since many funds are required to remain X% vested.  Tech and AI-related stocks have taken a beating mainly due to overvaluation, overcapacity and economy concerns. It is obvious there is a rotation away from tech stocks due to risk-off sentiments. But the situation is very fluid now, once the bullish sentiment comes back, value stocks will drop and tech will go up again. But for now, it is hard to know when the bullish sentiment will be back. 

On the other hand, I kept missing out on the rally in China markets. I should have paid more attention on what's happening. Europe defense stocks rallied as well which I normally don't even pay attention to and frankly don't know well enough to have a position. Since I don't know whether the rally will continue or even turn bearish from here, I will give it a miss this time round. I sold off China stocks back in 2023 because they were either going sideways or trending down with no signs of recovery, little did we know they would make a comeback in late 2024/early 2025. The China stock rally is mainly due to stimulus, AI play, and more "assurance" that tech crackdown has stopped. Some argue that China stocks are cheap and undervalued but they are for a few good reasons -- economy, government, geopolitical, and even cultural. Cultural in the sense that I don't think they would be able to build up a consumer-driven economy like the US at least not in the next several years as Chinese people just don't really have that mindset of spending money like no tomorrow, unlike their US counterpart. Henceforth this deflation issue would stick around for a while. If government doesn't spend,  the people doesn't spend, we can only rely on corporations to spend to spur the economy. In the past since 2008 GFC, China has relied on large-sale infra building to spur the economy (it has now the largest high-speed rail network and largest cities), it literally built itself out of recession. The economy was spurred to a significant extent by government spending with the people riding on the property boom. Now that all these are slowing down, it is no wonder the economy took a hit. Transitioning to domestic consumption is a very difficult task.  I doubt the stocks will ever be fully-valued or reach their true valuations at least in the next 2-3 years. I am not against them but am saying enter with your eyes wide open. Without giving more details, investors also need to understand the alignment of interests between government and corporations regarding stock markets. US on the other hand, the S&P went up even higher at the end of Trump's first term despite the trade wars (but of course before Covid started).  Will this time be any different as the circumstances are different now with high inflation, weakening labor market? Only time will tell.  Well, investing and trading should be based on probability and calculated risks. If you ask me, the answer is pretty obvious. 

In the US market, from the Nvidia and Broadcom decent/strong results and forward guidance, I think the AI theme still has some room to run, so I am slowly accumulating bit by bit, but don't dare to go in too much since they are still in a strong downtrend. Nvidia in particular looks fairly valued or even slightly undervalued even after considering its slowing growth rate. I don't expect Nvidia to melt-up or even break its own high in the near-term, even when the bullish sentiment is back. Another thing to consider about the semiconductor industry is tariff/export restriction risk. I doubt the 25% tariffs would follow through, as it would really have serious consequences. Overall, considering all factors, I may just take a small position or go for an ETF instead, or maybe go for a larger short-term position. The AI industry is expected to grow 15-20% CARG until 2030 which is in line with historical tech trends like Internet, smartphone, etc. It usually takes several years for new tech to be improved and widely adopted. I am also looking at the cybersecurity sector, specifically the ETFs, not individual stocks like Crowdstrike/Cyberark since their sky-high valuations are undergoing a correction right now. It seems like quite a defensive sector due to increasing cyber attacks / data leaks. In fact, cybersecurity is one of the top concerns cited in a global business leader survey.  

During my research, I also found out about some very interesting high-yield US ETFs giving >10% annually. Stay tuned for the next blog post!

Recent Trades: YTD all accounts beat the S&P index

Recently, I sold off the leveraged ETF for one of the semi stocks this week.  I bought on last Friday but it dipped suddenly on Feb 2, Sunday overnight trading when Trump announced tarriffs. The price went 10% below my purchase price but given that the stock has strong momentum, it bounced even higher after a few days and I gained 10% when I sold off. Why I don't post exact stock symbols/name is because of the recent MAS regulation. My posts are purely for educational purposes only, and I do not provide any financial advice nor sell any financial products. 

Buying and selling leveraged ETFs is risky, and one has to be very careful with the stock pick. Always set a cut loss and monitor carefully.  As I shared in my previous posts, I have been allocating more capital to short-term trading and now I hardly have < 10% long-term holdings, because there is a greater uncertainty this year due to trade wars, slowing down of rate cuts, a possible rate increase and doubts on AI capex spending. The fear/greed index is still showing fear, the longest streak it has been since 2024.  

One of my smaller accounts had a 80% gain from June 2024 to Feb 2025. I had losses and profits. One of the biggest losses is 20% for a commodity leveraged ETF which I forgot to set a cut loss. But fortunately, I was able to recoup the losses via a few trades.  I am looking to scale this profitable strategy up to my main account which is not so easy given the much larger capital. It is mentally and technically quite difficult to 'deploy' large sums quickly for a trade. 

I'm sure there are many times when you cut loss or sold, only to see the stock rise up even further.  I had many such encounters in the past. Example, as explained in this past post  I sold off 2 SaaS tech stocks during the  period of uncertainty and now they have went up by 10-20% since then. Do I regret? Yes and no. Looking back, I felt uncomfortable and wanted to increase my cash level. But of course, who doesn't want to make more $? 

One way to reduce risks for short-term trading, is do not hold your positions over key events / weekends. Easier said than done, so always be prepared to cut loss or average down. Key events such as company earnings, economic news, etc. 

Many of you have messaged me privately what is a leveraged ETF? I will explain more in my next post.

   

DeepSeek sell-off is a great opportunity

I wanted to write this post earlier, but I was busy with life & work. It's very fortunate I sold off my semi positions before the DeepSeek rout. I sensed the greed due to the "Stargate" news (explained in my previous post). Each time some thing surged up too fast too furious, you know it's time to take profits.  

During the sell-off, I did some quick trades using semi and crypto leveraged ETFs. And another easy 10-20% returns. Every time there is fear and deep plunge, there will surely be a quick bounce the following day.  YTD my accounts have beaten the S&P. The volatile market is indeed a trader's dream come true. The market is quite predictable in many ways. Through my daily observations of the market and monitoring of hundreds of stock charts, I have recorded down many patterns and devised multiple strategies to generate low-risk, high-yield returns. I have a few different accounts. 

I hope I can inspire some of you out there to pick up trading. It is not so easy, and yet not so difficult. It just takes a lot of courage, discipline, judgment and emotional control. Sometimes you have to go against your instincts and think logically. For example, buy on fear and sell on greed. It's usually easier said than done. Also you'd need the ability to pick the right stocks to trade. 

  

Past year performance:

More winning trades: 10-20% profits

 Recently, sold off some semi leveraged ETFs when I see them surged so much based on news of "Stargate". Took profits of 10-20% from these trades. When it dips again, I will buy some to trade the bounce. In this year, I think I will allocate more capital towards short-term trading. Imagine you'd just need to have 10% profits for 3 times (using your entire portfolio capital), and that will mean > 30% gains in the year, sufficient to beat the market.    But of course, easier said than done. I have managed to achieve 40-60% CARG in my smaller accounts last year and hoping to achieve the same using my main, larger account, using the same trading strategies.  

I am also looking to buy some strong growth companies on weakness. I noticed some strong stocks, when they dip 5-10%, they will quickly bounce back. Examples are FB, Netflix. 

The first thing any investor or trader should think of is: what is the risk or downside? To me, that's the most important factor before entering a position. There are so many kinds of risks we need to be aware of, so trading is not that easy, but with hard work and discipline, it's not that hard either. I will talk more about the various kinds of risks next time. Also how to pick the right stocks to trade. Stay tuned!

 

 

Recent profitable trades: win rate 100%

Recently, I have made several trades, making anywhere from breakeven to > 10% profits due to the recent volatility. I focus on tech and semi related and non-tech leveraged ETFs that have strong momentum / breakout.  The sideway movements of these stocks make them good targets for swing trading. My frequent mistake is I don't take profit in time, and the profit either drops or turns into a loss, and then I will have to cut loss or wait for a rebound. If the stock is worth holding, I will just hold. But fortunately, so far, my win rate has been 100% for the trades made this year.   

The market is still in fear, the longest streak for the past 3 weeks. I am being careful here and have sold off Monday and IOT which I bought earlier, with a small profit. Still holding onto TradeDesk with a small profit. With the earnings season here, there could be more volatility ahead, though so far we have some good news for the inflation front and bank earnings.  

For the past 2 years, the US market has been going up strongly due to expectations of Fed rate cuts. Now that the rate cuts are expected to slow down, who knows what will happen to the market? As such, I am moving more towards short-term trading. I am waiting for a good entry point to enter long-term for the stocks in my watchlist. I am also having a concentrated portfolio which I can easily focus on given my other committments.  

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

$3m net worth: A new post after a long hiatus

It has been 5 years since my last post. As we come to the end of 2024, I thought of sharing some updates and resuming my blogging journey. Since the pandemic in 2020, I experienced many changes in my life that took time away from blogging: new family, kid, change of jobs, new hobbies, etc. 

I reflected on my investing journey and life, and I was neutral on how far my net worth has grown. I could've certainly been more aggresive  in taking up more risks in investing, for higher rewards. You could say that I am a person who is always pushing myself ahead and never be contented with what I have. 

I have a "growth mindset" and I believe everyone should adopt it as well. One should always stay hungry, continuously try to learn more to improve. Never be afraid of failures. "Stay hungry, stay foolish".

Anyways, for the past year or so I have experimented with various short-term trading strategies in my accounts. Some of the accounts reached 40%, as high as 60% annualized returns. These are accounts with small capitals ranging S$20-150k. I hope to scale up the strategies to my main account for more profits. I have experimented using single index/stock leveraged ETFs to juice up the returns. 

I have also adopted a more aggressive growth investing approach. I have divested all my China and SG stocks, and moved entirely to US markets. China is currently experiencing an economic "turmoil" and may stay that way for multiple years, not to mention the geo/domestic political risks. SG market is still quite "dead" in this high interest rate environment. The usual investible companies are the banks and REITs and a couple of "growth"/value SME stocks. In the past, I have analyzed over 500 SG and China stocks and my conclusion is: Ultimately, US markets boost the highest returns with relatively lesser risks and has many more high-quality growth companies globally as they choose to list in the US exchanges over other regions. The US economy continues to do well in spite of inflation due to strong consumer spending (70% of the GDP) and government spending in the form of deficits and of course the ability to maintain the strength of the dollar due to its reserved currency status.  Putting aside social issues, from an investor's point of view, US markets are the heaven.

But some may argue US stocks are overvalued based on historical benchmarks. To that I will just say being "overvalued" may be the new norm now since there are a lot more liquidity (since the pandemic) vs investible companies. You simply can't use the historical P/E ratios to benchmark stocks nowadays. Historical benchmarks have to be adjusted by the amount of liquidity present in the markets. Growth stocks are always overvalued. The entire world, retail investors and sovereign funds alike, are investing in the US markets, so what do you expect?

Some stocks that I recently picked up include Monday.com and Samsara as their recent drop in prices present an opportunity to accumulate.  The prices are very volatile so I'd have to monitor them carefully, and cut loss when necessary.  I also made use of the dip after Powell's speech to add to SPY (using a leveraged ETF), so far this new position return has been 10% in just a few days.  

My portfolio now consists of long-term and short-term positions that are highly concentrated, fewer than 10 stocks. I believe in going in big to make a big return when I see an opportunity. Cut loss quickly if the thesis doesn't work out. If you have too many positions, you will just get the average return of the positions. To beat the index, you'd have to make sure all of these positions beat the index which is hard. So by making your portfolio more concentrated, you take up more risks in the hope that you increase the likelihood of beating the index. Fewer positions also make the portfolio easier to manage and monitor.

My trades/investments involve investing in a base index ETF followed by some positions to juice up the returns so I can beat the index. I applied the many lessons I learned over the years to make sure I consistently get high returns. It requires very strict discipline not to chase after FOMO stocks, etc. Otherwise one mistake can erase your hardwork for the year. I usually trade volatile tech stocks (swing trades), and "undervalued"/beaten down value stocks. 

Good luck everyone and enjoy the holidays!

      

 

 

 

 

Cashback vs Miles

There are numerous debate on this topic.  I have been a cashback person all the while and recently have been wondering whether it's worthwhile to switch to miles. However, I have yet to see any concrete quantitative analysis to aid my decision hence I decided to do one myself as I'm an analytical person.

Methodology

I try to be as objective as possible and am open to switching to accumulating miles as I am a person who wants to stretch the dollar value of my expenses.

Assumptions: 

1. I'm analysing this based on a long-term sustainable and realistic spending habit, i.e., not spend for the sake of spending or to buy that ultra expensive luxury/big ticket item. To further elaborate, this is done in the context of the average income earner (mass majority of us), not those super rich or those who spend frivolously. 
• Anyway, for those who can afford to spend > $5 / month consistently, why even bother about rewards and cashback (which are insignificant to your expenditure)?
2. I assume a round-trip from Singapore and miles accrual is in KrisFlyer. 
• Hence I will use the latest SIA KrisFlyer Award Chart (effective from Jan 2019) to select the representative zones and the lowest number of miles needed for a round-trip redemption across Economy Saver and Advantage. Based on this post, taxes and fees have to be paid using non-miles.

I also scanned through the miles credit cards for a sensing of mile accrual rates, card annual fees and the T&Cs.

Analysis (Economy Flight)

Refer to this spreadsheet screenshot for the analysis (click to enlarge).

Meaning of the columns:

Amount to spend: I calculated the S$ to spend to get the min no. of miles required, assuming various accrual rates (i.e., 4 / 2 / 1.2 miles per $). Most of the cards give 1.2-1.4 miles per SGD spent locally, hence the realistic rate is 1.2 miles / $.

Cashback earned: I calculated the cashback that can be earned on the "Amount to Spend" assuming using the Maybank Barcelona Card which gives a base 1.6% rate for all eligible expenses. But of course higher rate is possible through careful optimisations such as by spending in categories with higher rates and/or utilising better cards.

Lowest Ticket Price: I used SkyScanner to find the cheapest round-trip tickets (Economy/Budget direct flights only from any airline) using a future booking period of about 1 week in a non-peak season.  Ticket price is used for gauging the dollar value of the miles earned. See screenshots below for evidence. 

Amount Spending Period: Realistically, unless one has big ticket items to buy, the person has to spend "Amount to spend" over a few years. Based on annual expenses (chargeable to credit card) of S$20-25k.

Total Card Fees: Total annual fees paid throughout the "Amount Spending Period". I think it may be harder to waive off for miles cards (correct me if I'm wrong), hence a person has to pay the annual fees throughout the spending period.  1st year is usually waived but subsequent annual fee can range from $200-$500. Assume $200 for simplicity. Cashback cards usually have 2 years of waiver. 

Miles Benefit: Final dollar value of the min no. of miles earned, for comparing with "Cashback Earned". Calculated as Lowest Ticket Price minus Total Card Fees.

Analysis for Business Class

At the request of some readers, I did an analysis for a long-distance flight in business class (first class as well if I have time in the future). I assume a 5% cashback rate here since it should be attainable given the large expenditure.

If we are able to earn 4 miles / $, then we'd only earn a cashback of $2,375.000 vs the miles benefit of  $ 3,146.00 (Phillipines Airline) / S$5824 (SIA). 

In this analysis for business class, miles will win hands-down if the rate is >= 4 miles/$, otherwise there is no clear-cut winner. 

SIA Business Class costs S$6224 while Phillipines Airlines costs only S$3546. Base on this review, it seems that the quality of service is pretty decent. This comes as no surprise as quality of service by airlines should more or less be the same due to commoditisation of air transportation. A flight is just a flight, how different can it be? So what exactly are we paying for with the S$2700 difference? The branding of the airline so that we can post on Insta?

I'm uncertain which dollar value to tag to the earned miles, S$3546 or S$6224? Assuming all airlines price their tickets profitably, the cost of providing a business class seat may be much less than S$3546, and thus we as consumers are overpaying for it -- overpaying to a degree larger than we are for an economy seat. This then again begs the question of whether is it worth it?

Conclusion

For general/daily/long-term spending, cashback appear to be better. Thus I will stick to cashback for the simplicity of it and the fact that miles don't offer much more benefits (assuming a realistic rate of 1.2 miles / $ accrual).

Miles would be better for big ticket item expenditure when one can accrue at >= 4 miles/$, and that's when the earned miles can be redeemed for long-distance / biz class / suites flights. It takes careful planning to spend the right amount of money on the right cards. The spending period should be as short as possible to avoid card fees. I will consider using miles if I have big-ticket items, probably for my upcoming house renovation.

The downside of miles is that it takes much time and patience to earn, manage and redeem the miles, let alone navigating the complicated ever-changing terms and conditions.  The value of cashback is immediately realised at the end of each month while the value of miles is only at the point of redemption. Til then, you're subjected to significant risk as the reward and miles redemption T&Cs may change any time at the banks/airline's discretion.

Also, with actual spending terms such as these, it is challenging to get more than 1.2-1.4 mile / $ on average in a sustainable manner (not spend for the sake of spending):

1.2 miles per S$1 locally, 4 miles overseas & on select airlines
• 4 miles per S$1 on select entertainment (Netflix, Spotify & more)
• 8 miles per S$1 on select travel & accommodations bookings (Agoda, AirBnB & more)
1.2 miles per S$1 locally, 2 miles overseas, 3 miles for online travel bookings
1.4 miles per S$1 local spend, 2.4 miles overseas, 10 miles at major airlines & airports
Earn up to 4.4mi/S$1 on overseas dining, shopping & accommodation, 3mi on Klook
1.2 miles per S$1 local spend, 2 miles overseas
• Promotions: Earn 1.5 miles per S$1 local spend w/ min. S$3k monthly spend
• Option One: 26,500 miles w/ 1st annual fee payment & S$9k spend within 3 months
• Option Two: 6,400 miles w/ 1st annual fee payment & S$3k spend within 3 months
1.4 miles per S$1 local spend, 3 miles overseas (S$2,000 min spend)

What many miles proponents don't tell you is that you'd be spending A LOT of time "hacking miles". There may be frustration, constant monitoring every transaction to ensure they translate to miles, etc. Just look at this entire list https://milelion.com/credit-cards/guide/, imagine you'd have to comb through the T&Cs (from airlines and banks) and apply for the appropriate cards for your spending.

Ultimately you'd probably have to juggle with multiple cards, read the fineprints very carefully and possibly  spend significant time talking to the respective customer service to claim missing miles or to clarify which expenditure is eligible.

Referring to this post and this post, we can use credit card thru GrabPay to earn miles, but there are severe restrictions on how much you can earn. Imagine once you have started earning miles at say 10x points or 4 mpd, halfway thru, the T&Cs change, and viola, what will happen to your miles earned so far? You may not be able to hit your target soon enough to redeem for that dream vacation.

Once you're in the miles game, you're in it for the long-haul, subjected to the whims of the banks and airlines which can change their T&Cs at their own discretions.

*Latest Update* Base on the terms: https://www.citibank.com.sg/global_docs/pdf/Citi_Rewards_Card_10X_Rewards_Promotion_Terms_and_Conditions.pdf
Mobile wallet topups have been excluded.


What do you think?

Lowest Ticket Prices

I have been a great fan of Scoot for its very cheap tickets during promotional periods, to Europe (Athens/Berlin), to SEA, to China, etc. So I think their ticket prices may even be lower than those I found on SkyScanner for this analysis. 

I don't buy flight addons (e.g. meals, extra leg space, seat selection, insurance, WiFi, etc.) even though I'm a tall person of ~1.8m and for certain plane models, the seats are actually quite spacious. 

North China (Shanghai)

Malaysia (KL)

Malaysia (KL)

Thailand (Bangkok Alternate Airport)

Thailand (Bangkok main airport)

US (San Francisco) Direct Flight

US (SF) cheaper but with 1 stop and still reasonable duration

US (SF) cheaper with 1 stop and reasonable duration